good morning and welcome to special election edition of "this week." the obama campaign is slipping. >> we have come too far to turn back now. it's on. the final sprint. >> we'll win this election. we'll finish what we started. >> we're going to bring changes to get america stronger again. >> we need you, ohio. >> i love colorado! >> to break this deadlock race. the big questions now -- can obama's swing state firewall stand up to romney's momentum. how will hurricane sandy shake up the campaign? and with just nine days to go, could a final october surprise send this election into overtime? questions for our headliners.

stephanie cutter and newt gingrich. plus, insight and analysis from our roundtable. hello again. with just nine days to go, the october surprise is here. hurricane sandy. threatening a massive stretch of the u.s. from virginia to new england. all of the way to the great lakes. it's caused both candidates to scramble their schedules. we'll get into that, plus our latest abc news/washington post poll in just a moment. but let's begin with sam champion from lower manhattan. he's following the track of sandy right now. good morning, sam. >> good morning, george. the satellite picture will show

you this storm is one of the largest that we have ever seen in the atlantic basin. the latest out from the hurricane center, it feels exactly the same way for several days, making a left-hand turn to for the coastline by monday. we got tropical-force winds and hurricane-force winds about 200 miles across. it doesn't meatter where this storm comes ashore, expected to 10 feet high. let's go to matt gutman, this storm by the way is cruising by the coastline and matt at its closest point in north carolina. >> reporter: sam, it's still about 250 miles away. pushing these 60-mile-wind gusts right in here. this is not snow. this is seafoam. the waves out there are about 30 feet high.

just beyond the coast here and it's kicking up this very strange fe nonnonof seafoam. while they're accustomed to hurricanes and storms, they're not used to seeing the cold combined. hour after hour, sam and george, it's been getting colder out here. the weather is intensifying. this is just a sliver of the folks up north are going to see. george? >> matt, thanks very much. this storm is a monster. now the race for the white house. we have brand-new numbers from the voters. still new polls out there, from those all-important battle grounds. first virginia, president obama clinging to a four-point lead. and in what may be the consequential states of all, ohio, more signs of momentum for mitt romney. ohio newspapers shows the race

all tied up 49% to 49%. let's hear from newt gingrich for mitt romney and stephanie cutter for president obama. stephanie, let me begin with you with that poll out of ohio. romney coming on strong. it looks a real threat to your firewall. >> we feel pretty good where we are. we're beating romney 3 to 1 in the early vote. we feel good about ohio. we think we're going to win it. >> let's dig into that abc news/washington post, stephanie, it shows romney making headway on the economy. back in july, obama had a 16-point lead on that measure. today, it's tied. did you wait too long? >> absolutely not. i mean, you know, it's

interesting that you're pointing out your national tracker poll but in the virginia poll that you just cited we are beating romney in terms of who do you trust to get the economy going? in terms of the president's plans, we're happy to talk about them. we ran a two-minute ad on it. we have been campaigning across the country on this plan. you know, whether it's putting the best trained workers all over this country. bringing jobs back to this country. rather than sending them overseas or doing some nation-building at home. we're ending two wars. these are big plans and the president laid them out at the convention and it's a second term of an obama presidency will mean. it stands in sharp contrast to romney romney's. we can look at these polls a million different ways. they all say something

different. at the end of the day, we're focused on getting the president across the country. meeting as many voters as possible. and investing in that ground game, ohio, florida, the first day of early voting yesterday, record numbers of people are m coing out to vote. there's a sign behind the president's re-election. we're confident. >> we're also seeing newspaper endorsements. president obama getting the endorsement of "new york times." the des moines register hasn't endorsed a republican since 1972 richard nixon, they endorsed romney, saying that he offers a fresh economic vision. it said that barack obama rocketed to the presidency from relative obscurity with a theme of hope and change. a different reality has marked his presidency. his record on the economy the

past four years does not suggest that he would lead in the direction the nation must go in the next four years. how much does this hurt? >> they endorsed romney in the primary. it was surprising to read that editorial. it wasn't based in reality. it said that romney would reach the aisle, but it would be the exact opposite. over the course of running for president over this last six years, he's never once stood up to the far extreme right wing. just this past week, we saw it, where he wouldn't take down his ad for richard mourdock. he's not willing to stand up when it matters. the fact that he's going to bring people together is just nonsense. in terms of newspaper endorsements we feel pretty good where we are. this morning, brings the miami herald, the pittsburgh postgazette, the "new york times."

the toledo blade. youngstown vind kay or the. i feel good. there is movement out there with people wanting a second term of an obama presidency. we feel good where we are. finally the impact of hurricane sandy. president obama has canceled trips to virginia and ohio. how much has the hurricane hindered your efforts there? >> we have to see how it goes. of course, we're all hoping that the hurricane doesn't have huge consequences for people's safety. we have taken every precaution that we can. the president took down a couple of stops to stay at the white house to monitor the situation. he's given every resource to insure that people are safe. we have to see how this goes. we're all hoping for the best and for the people's safety. >> stephanie cutter, thank you very much. let's turn to newt gingrich. thanks for coming in this

morning. you heard stephanie cutter there. she believes their campaign is ahead in hope. your response? >> i think you put your finger on it with the des moines register, a newspaper that hasn't endorsed a republican in 40 years, now they were for obama four years ago, they switched. the fact is, the paper in florida did the same thing, pro-obama, it switched. in ohio, we clearly have gained ground. i think across the country, we have. the washington post poll, i doubt that virginia wiobama wil virginia. don't know if it's the economy or the benghazi. if the president is telling the truth and he instructed his assistants to get aid to

benghazi, we're being told that the secretary of defense canceled that. you notice that he's cancelling his trips over the hurricane. he didn't cancel his trips over benghazi and you have to wonder, between benghazi, the price of gasoline and unemployment just how much the burden the president is going to carry into this last week. >> he does have a burden. at the same time, he's built up a lead in some of these battle ground states. it raised the prospect of governor romney winning the popular vote . >> i don't know what he means by we won't accept it. we're a nation of law, we'll obey the law. i think romney will win 53% 47%.

very unlikely that he can win popular vote and not carry the electoral vote. carville has a rule, incumbents get the last poll. ohio, obama would lose 51%, 49%. you go around the country. lots of states obama is at 48%, 49% and james carville always said, you never get if you're the incumbent, you never get a break. >> let's look at the closing arguments from president obama. he was in new hampshire yesterday taking aim at romney's record in massachusetts. >> once he took office, he pushed through a tax cut that overwhelming benefited 278 of the wealthiest families in the state, and then he raised taxes and fees on middle-class families. to the tune of $750 million. does that sound familiar to you?

>> his argument of course exactly what governor romney is going to do if he's president. >> wait a second, the fact is barack obama would trade job creation of romney as governor in a hartley beat. he would trade of massachusetts under romney in a heartbeat. romney worked with a democratic legislation la sure. you look at romney's record, it looks obama's presidency pretty thin. the longest period of high unemployment in america history since the great depression. every person who buys gasoline today is paying $2 a gallon more because of obama's energy policies. i think obama if he would have a chance would love to have romney's record in massachusetts. >> the price of gas is going down in these final weeks. >> sure, it goes down every fall.

it's still the most expensive this time of year in america. $2 more when obama became president. we're learning more about how much bankruptcies there in solar power. that's pretty tough record to go into ohio, florida, anywhere, and say to folks, why don't you keep voting $2 for gasoline. >> finally, mr. speaker, you heard stephanie bring up the issue of richard m x ourdock in indiana, saying that it's wrong for romney to stand up for him. >> if you listen to what mourdock said, life begins at conception. this seems to be fixated by the

democrats. obama is a state senator voted three times in allowing doctors to kill babies in the eighth, ninth month. the democratic party platform which says you should pay with your tax money for late-term abortion. it doesn't seem to fascinate the press nearly enough -- >> mr. speaker, what he said exactly, life after rape is something that god intended to happen, do you agree with that? >> he issued a clarification that he was talking about conception. he condemned rape. every decent american i know condemns rape. we all condemn rape. let's talk about whether we condemn killing babies in eighth, ninth months. our powerhouse roundtable is

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gwen ifill of pbs. and niccole wallace. newt gingrich predicting 553/47 win for governor romney. who's bluffing right now? >> both are bluffing. because no one knows at this point. what we do know is that the trends the last few weeks favor mr. romney. what will interrupt that trend if anything? who knows? >> the question is andrew sullivan has the trend already been interrupted. some signs that romney's momentum peaked last week. >> the last three weeks, the swing state polls haven't changed. they were the same three weeks ago. the bumps that obama got from

the second set has stabilize. unless you know you're right, unless this abc news poll in ohio, to me is stark news. >> you mean the ohio poll. >> that changes the equation. the last three weeks, look at owl of the swing states polls, everything in them, it's been the same race. >> nicolle wallace, that first ra debate. >> i agree that the polls in ohio is really the only one that matters. i don't buy that there's a path without ohio for romney. so, what they're pointing to this morning, what does suggest something that may be destabilizing the post-debate stability, the demos moines

register editorial could have a ripple effect in that part of the country. if the polls show them even, that could change the me mentality of the voters in ohio. try to neutralize of false attacks about the auto bankruptcy. >> that's become the big issue in ohio. the auto bailout. the other argument from stephanie cutter, 20% of voters in ohio have voted. >> and in north carolina, maryland, georgia. stephanie cutter is right about this. lot of lines on the east coast. i also think you have to look at what these candidates have in front of them. they have to get out there. i talked to at lot of voters. they're all trying to figure out what they're goingo do. and the candidates want to get out. the president has to cancel a couple of virginia events.

mitt romney had to cancel. where do they go? back to ohio and i'm watching colorado closely. where voters are really -- had gone back and forth, that's where a lot of this is going to get decided. >> austan, one of the states will be affected by hurricane sandy. >> the race is fundamentally hinge on any of these things. all of the fundamentals of the economy, of the polling, of the politics of the country point to it's going to be a razor-thin margin, we're going to be up late on election night. >> a point in this election all year, at which obama hasn't had a lead in electoral college, ever, he'll have to lose it in the last week having led all

year. >> if ohio goes to romney -- >> yes, it does. >> it's the change in romney's gain among women and that i think represents a huge recoil by professional women with college degrees against the c condensation of the obama campaign which says essentially don't trouble your little heads about men's issue. worry about contraception, a constitutional right for 47 years, it's a distraction on women. >> it also reveals a grave miscalculation, the obama campaign put this front and center in their convention and it had a positive effect in terms of rallying their base. united the women that care about

reproductive -- republicans don't need to best democrats. they just need to tighten it. they both made a gamble. the romney campaign made a gamble that enough women cared about the economy and economic issues more or at least as much as -- >> in the debate, obama related women's issues to family and economic issues. he didn't isolate it that way and of course, the big elephant in the room is that romney showed up on october 3rd like alien ripped off his mask and said, i'm brand new now. >> but we liked him. we liked him. isn't that the point? we liked him better. >> he has evolutionary ideology. >> andrew, at this point in the campaign, all that matters is who has the last-minute

enthusiasm. i don't know about the word momentum. i think enthusiasm. you can't argue that the republicans who have gotten a little depressed were enthuse wh whatted. the president lost the first debate. but won the last two. it's a distraction for both candidates. >> it's a fundamental issue. when i become president, we won't have partisan ship anymore in washington. for romney to say i'm going to fix it, nobody believes any of that. >> the des moines register poll, the most power argument that they end up making that could have some impact, they seem to back up this idea romney has a better chance for bipartisan

ship >> i found that surprising. if you go back and look at massachusetts, mitt romney vetoed 800 bills by the democratic legislation in massachusetts. i don't know if we start peeling ck on the onion on that. we got to take a quick break. we'll look at the final week of the campaign and more. oi througo all by cob. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. i'm going b-i-g. [ male announcer ] good choice business pro. good choice. go national. go like a pro. [ male announcer ] good choice business pro. good choice. i'i invest in what i know.r. i turned 65 last week. i'm getting married.

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30,000 people. i created jobs in america. i ran a business. i see what's going on today and i'm frightened to death. we have republicans trying to redefine rape. if you think this election won't affect you and your life, think again. >> families had received letters from president obama that were not personalized. a family sacrifice a child and you choose to send a form letter. >> for us it's about defending our country. >> our freedom. >> to trust you as commander in chief, i don't think so. >> i don't think so. >> as a veteran, i don't think so. >> sampling of the ads being run all over the country. we're back with the roundtable. let's take a look at the closing arguments of the campaigns right now. george, you heard andrew talk

about how we saw a different mitt romney at the debate, that seems to be the argument that obama and his allies seem to making colin powell. >> on monday night, he agrees with the withdrawal. same thing in iraq and on almost every issue that was discussed on monday night, governor romney agreed with the president. but this is a different set of foreign policy views that he had earlier in the campaign. >> george, that had been an argument that the obama people shied away earlier in the campaign. >> well, that's right. right now, that charge is really an accusation that romney can live with. which is don't believe him as andrew said because you might like him. i think people say, our last impression of him, this is your closing argument, that this is

someone that we can live with. i think the obama attack is but tressing the attack. >> if you're paying attention to the policy, it has to worry you that he has bunch of stated policies in his platform if you start unpacking them, there aren't any details and what he's saying now is totally different than what he is saying now. >> don't people normally state that. i think he's basically just, he's got a thing in writing that my policy is a. you say a is my policy and it's not. >> the but the problem is obama is eroding his own trust and credibility by not settling on one. you can't be coreless. i think obama has underlined his own attack.

listen campaigns that are exhausted and stressed and they both are. but, to me, this is a little bit of a window into which campaign is feeling a little bit more battered and which campaign is enjoying a teeny bit lift in the momentum. it's coming down seven to gubernatorial races, really. but i think obama has undermined his own attacks on romney by frankly flip-flopping. >> but romney was a severe conservative from january to october and now he's a new candidate. >> but whatever it is better than obama. >> but he's supporting a massive increase in debt. his math will balloon the debt just like bush did, taxcuts, increase in spending and no details on how -- increase in

defense spending and no details on how to balance the budget and a war in iran. >> let's go back to monday. this is what the final message was from both of them that night. final message from romney i can be trusted. you can trust me. let me finish. let me finish. the president's argument was that, you can't trust him. so the president was behaving as if he was the underdog. no question about that. and that's what out on the campaign trail all week now. i dot know if romney's argument really work. >> voters did think that president obama won that last debate. >> they do. they do. >> changed his entire foreign policy overnight, who is this guy? and why are we talking about how

this affects the race? than we have someone who has no core at all, changed it a dozen times to appeal to the market share he's talking to. >> what it comes down to around actual argument about exhibitions and that argument is, one side conditions aren't that great. but they were much worse and they have gotten somewhat better. the obama people go look at romney's policy, exactly what george bush said in 2001. romney saying, look at what the president is for and that hasn't work. >> george, i want to bring this to you, they have started to send out these economic plans right now. yesterday in new hampshire, he talked about mitt romney's

record in massachusetts, basically get out the vote message. >> that's right. they're saying romney is the candidate of change, we don't like the change. andrew said, vote against romney because he would balloon the deficit. an odd argument who added $5 trillion to the deficit. that's mr. obama. >> the recession added $5 trillion to the deficit that was caused by the previous administration. >> but voters believe that obamas will do so much more harm. voters are choosing between two men, each of chom are far from perfect, i think that's why you see a lot of -- it's very negative. >> one will lead to balanced budgets. and one whose math will not.

>> change, that was an interesting change in mitt romney's speech this week, he kept talking about big change, you want big change, i can bring you big change. what challengers do it. we heard bill clinton do it. we heard barack obama do it. certainly. the hope and change thing is now benefiting the republicans this time. >> it transcended to their signage. >> more than election census, this is about the proper scope and actual confidence of governmentment. it will come down to a basic feeling that people have, who understands government better? >> i think that's fair. if you had a huge hurricane that affect eed sometimes -- >> for example. >> either positive or negative. they can get really angry that the response wasn't really big.

or >> one other potential surprise this week, that final unemployment report coming out on friday. you're an economist. looking at the numbers right now, what are you expecting to see and how much difference will it make. >> we have seen over the last year and a half, one month's numbers don't seem to crack through the shell that much. that said, we had -- probably artificially too optimistic number last time, some rebound. but at the same time, the economy has been improving. i think most people are expecting the unemployment rate not to change much. >> most believe that the country is going in the right direction. >> let's look -- everybody has been talking about how close this race is right now. i want to show one ad that president obama is running down in florida and some of the other

battle ground states. >> 537, the number of votes that changed the course of american history. >> florida is too close to call. >> the difference between what was and what could have been. make your voice heard. vote. >> that's why both campaigns, george will, spent so much time and effort in the last week, focusing on turnout above all else. >> an american tradition. woodrow wilson was elected because he carried california 400 votes. one of the beauties of the electo are, a, l college system is, we quarantined our close elections in one state. rather than pour in all of the ballots in one big pool and litigation. >> that ad is supposed to freak

democrats out. remind them the worst day ever. they think either because people didn't show up to vote or the supreme court didn't do what they wanted. there's a guy in washington who counts every four years, he has a gloomy count of how many americans don't vote, he's usually correct. what both campaigns want to do right now is raise the numbers. >> that's right. one of the other arguments the obama campaign makes these national polls. gallup poll has shown seven-point lead for romney. simply missing these voters who will get out again. >> we have two polling races. rasmussens and, according to the gallup and rasmussens we're headed for a landslide for

romney. they missed last time by huge amounts. i don't know what's going on out there. george, none of us does, i think, i think it's going to be extremely close. i think like nicolle, it's going to be about ohio, the auto bailout. >> or miscounting latino voters. or just the science of polling. >> or the number of times i have refused to pick up my phone when i can see it's research firm. but nonetheless, i think a nightmare frankly, maybe we can all agree on this, there are some electoral college/popular vote difference. >> one scenario is that it just doesn't come down to one state, like ohio, is that you got four, five states and each one of

those five is in that circumstance and we're in total confusion. >> we have december 31st coming up. >> you talk about ohio, they don't even count all of the absentee votes in ohio until november 16th. it will take longer than that for the provisional votes. you talked about polls. last time around, our abc news/washington posthad president obama's dead-on. 53%. now romney at 49%. talk about the possibility that romney wins the popular vote and loses the electoral. >> in 52 presidential elections the popular vote and the electoral have con insided john quincy adams. hayes in '76. bush over gore in 2000. that's not a bad record. 52 out of 56.

i wouldn't worry about it so much. >> or 2 out of 3. >> i think 2000 was a moment of great crisis in this country. lot of the particularization in this country, after that with 9/11 is what caused this country to be what i call a cold civil war. >> it could become even more partisan after that. this will all be facing as we the deadline when the tax increases would hit and approaching the debt limit. >> this is part of romney's closing arguments. romney is running as a guy who can fix big problems and this is what i think is helping to fuel his surge in the final days, that, and i think this is also why people aren't disturb that his positions tend to evolve. people have low views about the competence of government.

romney turned around the olympics and can get things down. >> with the federal government funding. >> well, look. >> you can't say you're a turn-around artist when you're saying you're relying on federal funds. >> a huge racial gap, 6 out of 10 voters, white voters voting for romney. and 8 out of 10 voting for president obama. >> people, i guess, are honest on the telephone poll. very tight race, if that affects 5% of the vote that could affect the outcome as well. i don't think most people like to think that way. but i don't think that you can

ignore it. it would be naive to ignore as a factor. >> if virginia and florida go back to romney, you got the civil war. >> you're rolling your eyes, george. >> am i wrong? >> you are and i'll say why. democrats have been losing the white vote constantly since 1964. >> john kerry lost the white vote. >> that's right. 20008, from obama, gets that many white votes. we're trying to explain this difference. now, two possible explanations lot of white people who voted for obama in 2008 watched him govern for four years and said, not so good, let's try someone else. the con fedry theory, in the last four years, became racist. >> that's not my argument at all, george. >> it sounds like it. >> no.

i'm pointing out the fact that the white voters changing their minds happen to be in virginia and florida. only two states in the -- let me point out -- southernization of the republican party. they were the only two states in 2008 that violated the rule. >> a statement that's checkable and false. that people -- white people moving away are in those two states. >> and a loft them were republicans. >> look, one more time, this could be ohio, that's where president obama is focusing on, the white male vote in ohio. we got to take a quick break. we got to talk about the senate when we come back. [ female announcer ] want to spend less and retire with more? then don't get nickle and dimed by high cost investments and annoying account fees. at e-trade, our free easy-to-use online tools and experienced retirement specialists

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in these final days. we're bah with our roundtable. this map shows 16s to-up races right now for the senate. reminding everyone, if president obama wins, republicans needs to pick up four senate seats to gain control. if romney wins they need to pick up three. >> all politics is local. this year may be no politics is local. a national trend. all of the marginal states tip the same way. but the republicans going in, defending only ten seats, attacking 23, it should have been easier for them than this. >> andrew sullivan, so much discussion it turns out on rape with aiken and mourdock. >> that's interesting. will the republicans interpret their results in the senate with the function of them moving way

far to the right. in interpret that, there might be hope. i'm supporting president obama to keep the republican party from being completely insane. but, mourdock and aiken are the lead stories. >> nicolle, aiken may cost them a senate seat in missouri. >> probably will. >> there's this senate seat in massachusetts. >> she's not so crazy. vote for president obama and vote for me. folks involved in the senate race on the national level it's working. it's tightened her race. the other thing about connecticut is when our lights go out they stay out. it's like, you know, the dark

ages, literally, this may be a state where we can evaluate after the fact the ground game. >> todd akin and richard mourdock. both of them are speaking to their states, missouri and indiana who respond to what they say. who believe that life believes at conception. they're not -- they didn't like what akin said about rape. but they were willing to forgive him for it. you may disagree. i'm talking about what it takes to get senate candidates elected. >> on the principal, they denied that evolution takes place. >> what race are you watching. >> i'm in chicago, i'm watching

that indiana team. it's surprisingly close. i think george's insight is really the strongest one to think here, we got a bunch of races, they're all close, you don't know what's going to happen, they're not independent. i think george's insight at what happens at the national level is probably going to carry on the final momentum. >> that could affect, george, the races in places like virginia, montana, north dakota, where republicans had been behind but there's momentum for romney. >> i would also pick wisconsin, in 2010 when the country moved to the right no state moved more emphatically to the right than wisconsin. they tried to recall the governor and the governor to fight that created a huge infrastructure that stayed in place. wisconsin has voted democratic

in five consecutive presidential elections. bush lost it by two tenths of a percent. five straight times, this could be the year when the republicans win there now. tammy baldwin and tommy thompson ran negative campaigns. the coal state hates both of them. therefore, the neutralizing their negatives this may be the real bell weather. to underscore that point, they're running ads in minnesota for wisconsin. thank you very much. austin and gwen are standing by to answer your questions on twitter. now, we pause to honor our fellow americans who serve and sacrifice. this week, the pentagon released the names of four soldiers killed in afghanistan.

and we'll be back in a moment with the latest on hurricane sandy from sam champion. spoke a language all its own with unitedhealthcare, i got help that fit my life. information on my phone. connection to doctors who get where i'm from. and tools to estimate what my care may cost. so i never missed a beat. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for more than 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. hey, it's sandra -- from accounting. peter. i can see that you're busy... but you were gonna help us crunch the numbers for accounts receivable today. i mean i know that this is important. well, both are important. let's be clear. they are but this is important too. [ man ] the receivables. [ male announcer ] michelin knows it's better

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and before we go, let's check in one more time with our weather editor sam champion for the latest on hurricane sandy.

>> good morning, again, george. we're looking at the very lastest from the hurricane center. nothing has really changed. this storm is still on track to be a major hitter, anywhere from washington, d.c., all of the way up to maine. this satellite picture is amazing. clouds extend from the carolinas to the boston. one of the longest storms that we have seen in size take a look at track. left-hand turn by monday morning. making landfall on the jersey shore by the time we get to tuesday morning. it's a rough morning. >> you'll be on top of it. thanks, sam. that's all for us today. thank you for sharing part of your sunday with us. check out "world news" with david muir tonight and i'll see you tomorrow on "good morning america." mayor: casino owners in west virginia are spending

millions against question seven. that upsets me. and that upsets jonathan ogden. you don't want to upset jonathan ogden. ogden: no you don't. mayor: question seven means thousands of jobs and millions for our schools. but these west virginia casinos want to keep it all for themselves. we're not happy about that. ogden: no we aren't. mayor: so join us and vote for question seven. and west virginia, don't make me send jonathan ogden over there. mayor: vote for question seven. ogden: for baltimore.